Going in to Tuesday’s state primary election, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is facing two challengers who could make his re-election bid more difficult than usual for an incumbent.

The candidates on the democratic primary ballot are Cuomo, the current governor, Zephyr Teachout and Randy Credico. Teachout is a professor at the Fordham Law School, while Credico is a comedian, activist and the former director of the William Moses Kunstler Fund for Racial Justice.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Rob Astorino, a Westchester County Executive who is running unopposed in the primary and Howie Hawkins, a Green Party candidate and Syracuse native, in the general election.

Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University and director of the Alan K. Campbell Public Affairs Institute, said in an email that normally a sitting incumbent such as Cuomo shouldn’t have much opposition in pursuing re-nomination. But this race is different.

Cuomo is facing three main issues, Reeher said. One is Cuomo’s more conservative policy initiatives. Another is his lack of willingness to compromise on issues of political reform. Finally, there is also apparent public fatigue with his aggressive style, which is supported partly by the fall-out from the Moreland Commission, Reeher said.

On July 2, 2013, Cuomo appointed the Moreland Commission to “probe systemic corruption and the appearance of such corruption in state government, political campaigns and elections in New York state,” according to the New York state website. Cuomo shut down the commission in March.

Kristi Andersen, a political science professor, agreed that ethics and corruption are two of the most important issues in the race.

“Cuomo came into office very clearly about cleaning up Albany and certainly Teachout and others have raised questions about whether he’s really done much about those issues,” she said.

Cuomo is now under federal investigation for the roles he and his aides have played in the Moreland Commission’s shutdown. Andersen said that while the investigation is unlikely to be complete by the time of the general election, Teachout’s experience has helped make it the focus of the campaign.

“Certainly the fact that he closed down the Moreland Commission before it could finish its work and the fact that Teachout is an expert on political corruption, she just published a book on political corruption, does focus the primary on the issue,” she said.

Reeher added that Teachout “is running a spirited and articulate campaign, which is resonating with many left-of-center Democrats,” which he said has resulted in a lot of positive media attention. On the contrary, Reeher said Cuomo’s avoidance of debates is not helping and he is receiving some negative press about it.

Many incumbents who are “safe” use the strategy of avoidance, Andersen said.

“Incumbents who are safe often take the ‘above it all’ strategy, or the ‘hunker down’ strategy,” she said. “They’re not going to engage. That would just give more fuel to the primary opponent. They don’t campaign a lot, they don’t debate, but they do send reminders to voters.”

Andersen said that while Teachout has focused on corruption, the probability of her winning the primary is still very slim, although she has done some damage to Cuomo’s reputation in terms of the general election.

Reeher said anything closer than a two-to-one margin of victory for Cuomo would be notable. Anything over 40 percent of the votes going to Teachout would generate a strong reaction, he said. Andersen agreed, saying that if Teachout does well, it may make Cuomo look weaker.

While Cuomo is the favorite going in, Reeher said he wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being a close contest between him and Teachout.

“I’ve spoken to a few Democratic insiders in this region who have told me they are voting for Teachout, and this has surprised me,” he said. “I think it will be closer than people are expecting.”

Published on September 9, 2014 at 12:01 am

Contact Justin: jmatting@syr.edu | @jmattingly306